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French police

French police have opened an investigation into suspected insider trading following an extraordinary betting pattern in which 12 prediction-market accounts reportedly correctly forecast the exact finishing order of the top five players in the 2026 men’s Ballon d’Or award.

The investigation centres on bets placed through Polymarket, a prediction-market platform, after the accounts successfully predicted the first five positions before the award rankings became public.

According to reports by The Athletic, the accounts correctly identified Harry Kane as the winner, followed by Kylian Mbappé, Lamine Yamal, Rodri and Lionel Messi.

The unusual accuracy of the predictions has raised suspicions that some participants may have had access to confidential information before the official announcement.

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Sources within French law enforcement, who spoke anonymously because they were not authorised to discuss the investigation publicly, reportedly confirmed that police were examining the betting activities.

About €250,000, approximately $281,000, was reportedly wagered across the 12 accounts, generating profits of nearly €200,000, estimated at $225,000.

The investigation followed reports by French media outlet Upside, which first identified the suspicious betting patterns before The Athletic independently verified the findings.

Investigators are particularly interested in the timing of the wagers, the activities of the accounts and how the bettors managed their positions in the prediction market.

The unusual pattern reportedly suggested that some participants may have possessed information about the final rankings before they were officially announced.

The development has raised fresh questions about the security of confidential information surrounding major international sporting awards and the growing influence of online prediction markets.

The Ballon d’Or, organised by France Football, is among football’s most prestigious individual awards, attracting global attention from players, clubs, supporters and betting enthusiasts.

The outcome is determined through a voting process involving selected journalists, making the confidentiality of the results an important part of the award’s administration.

The betting controversy has also drawn attention to the possibility that individuals with access to sensitive information could exploit prediction platforms for financial gain.

However, the reported betting activity does not by itself establish that insider trading occurred or identify those responsible.

French authorities are expected to examine the available evidence to determine whether confidential information was improperly accessed or shared.

The investigation comes amid increasing scrutiny of prediction markets, which allow users to wager on the outcomes of sporting, political and other events.

Neither the unusual accuracy of the predictions nor the reported financial gains have established criminal wrongdoing against any individual.

The outcome of the investigation could have wider implications for the relationship between sporting organisations, confidential award information and online betting platforms.

The Traffic NG
French police
Amarachi Ihesiulo

Ihesiulo Grace Amarachi is a Nigerian journalist, writer and media professional serving as the Editor-in-Chief of TheTraffic.NG, a digital news platform covering national and international affairs. Her editorial interests span politics, business, aviation, health, technology, entertainment, sports and social development. She is committed to credible journalism, insightful reporting and compelling storytelling that informs public discourse and keeps readers abreast of important developments in Nigeria, Africa and beyond.

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