Chairman of the Presidential Committee on Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms, Taiwo Oyedele, has attributed Nigeria’s rising public debt primarily to the sharp depreciation of the naira rather than an aggressive accumulation of new loans, saying exchange rate movements have significantly inflated the country’s debt profile.
Speaking at a policy forum on Nigeria’s fiscal outlook, Oyedele explained that a substantial portion of the increase in the nation’s debt stock reflects the revaluation of existing external borrowings after the naira’s depreciation, rather than fresh borrowing by the Federal Government.
He noted that because a significant share of Nigeria’s external debt is denominated in foreign currencies, fluctuations in the exchange rate automatically increase its value when converted into naira, even if the actual dollar amount owed remains unchanged.
“The rise in the debt figure should be understood within the context of currency depreciation,” Oyedele said. “What appears as a sharp increase in debt is largely an accounting effect resulting from the weaker naira, not necessarily because the government has taken on a corresponding volume of new loans.”
According to him, recent reforms in the foreign exchange market, which allowed the naira to trade more freely, have altered the local currency value of external obligations. He stressed that while the debt stock has increased in naira terms, policymakers should focus more on debt sustainability and the country’s capacity to service its obligations than on headline figures alone.
Oyedele argued that improving government revenue remains the most effective strategy for strengthening Nigeria’s fiscal position. He said ongoing tax reforms are designed to broaden the revenue base, improve tax administration and reduce dependence on borrowing to finance public expenditure.
He also maintained that fiscal discipline, efficient public spending and sustained economic growth would be critical to ensuring that Nigeria’s debt remains manageable over the long term.
Economic analysts at the forum agreed that exchange rate depreciation has significantly influenced the country’s debt statistics, particularly since external loans are reported in naira for domestic accounting purposes. However, they cautioned that rising debt servicing costs and revenue constraints remain important fiscal challenges requiring urgent attention.
The experts called for continued efforts to boost non-oil revenue, attract productive investments and increase exports to strengthen foreign exchange earnings and reduce pressure on the naira.
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Oyedele expressed confidence that ongoing fiscal and tax reforms would improve investor confidence, expand economic activity and enhance government revenue over time. He added that stronger public finances would reduce the need for excessive borrowing while creating greater fiscal space for investments in infrastructure, healthcare, education and other critical sectors.
He urged Nigerians to assess public debt within the broader context of macroeconomic reforms, emphasizing that exchange rate adjustments have had a far greater impact on the reported debt stock than new borrowing in recent years.

