NCR Nigeria rallies 76.8% in 2026 despite weak fundamentals

NCR (Nigeria) Plc has extended one of the most remarkable rallies on the Nigerian Exchange into 2026, following an explosive run in the previous year.

In 2024, the company’s stock surged by an impressive 1,354%, making it the top-performing stock on the NGX for that year. That momentum has carried into 2026, with the stock opening at N72.70 and gaining 76.8% year-to-date, placing it sixth among the NGX’s best performers so far this year. This sustained rally has pushed NCR’s market capitalisation to approximately N13.9 billion.

The company

NCR (Nigeria) Plc provides technology solutions that enable businesses to connect, interact, and transact with customers across Nigeria. The company supplies and maintains hardware and software for automated teller machines (ATMs), point-of-sale (POS) terminals, self-service kiosks, and other transaction and customer-facing systems.

Its solutions serve clients in financial services, retail, hospitality, healthcare, travel, and related sectors. Incorporated in 1949 and headquartered in Lagos, NCR (Nigeria) Plc operates as a subsidiary of NCR Voyix Corporation.

Why the rally?

The rally can largely be attributed to NCR’s ownership structure. The company’s parent, NCR Corporation (USA), controls 61.76% of the outstanding shares, leaving a free float of just 31.74% of the 108 million shares outstanding.

With such a limited pool of tradable shares, relatively modest demand can trigger sharp price movements. In this context, the rally appears to have been amplified by tight supply rather than large institutional inflows.

Secondly, NCR entered the rally from a very low valuation base after years of weak financial performance and subdued trading.

Fundamentals tell a more cautious story

A closer look at the numbers shows that the rally has run ahead of long-term fundamentals. Between 2020 and 2024, NCR generated cumulative revenue of N16.0 billion, but top-line performance declined at a compound annual rate of 15.95%.

Over the same period, the company recorded a cumulative loss of about N4.2 billion, with profit deteriorating at an average annual rate of 49.47%.

The core challenge has been the cost of sales.

From 2020 to 2024, the cost of sales absorbed nearly N12.95 billion, declining more slowly than revenue and steadily eroding gross margins. By 2024, the cost of sales had effectively matched revenue, leaving little room for profitability and contributing to persistent operating losses.

That said, 2025 has delivered an important inflexion point. For the nine months ended 2025, NCR reported a profit of N238 million alongside tighter cost control. This marked the first meaningful break from a multi-year loss cycle, although it is still too early to declare a full turnaround.

Valuation: cheap or fairly priced?

At a share price of N128.55, NCR is trading on an earnings multiple of about 10.9 times, based on recent trailing earnings. On the surface, this valuation does not appear stretched.

However, this multiple rests on a very short earnings history following several years of negative earnings per share. Between 2020 and 2024, EPS declined sharply, culminating in a loss of N20.11 per share in 2024.

The recent positive EPS reflects early recovery rather than long-established profitability. As a result, the current valuation is more a bet on earnings sustainability than a reflection of past performance.

What investors should keep in mind

NCR’s rally is real, but it appears to be driven primarily by market structure, momentum, and expectations rather than a fully proven operational turnaround.

The stock’s tight free float continues to magnify price movements, while recent profitability has helped validate sentiment without yet removing underlying risks.

For the rally to be sustained, investors will be watching for consistent revenue stabilisation or growth, durable improvement in cost of sales and margins, and confirmation that 2025 profitability can be repeated on a full-year basis.

Bottom line

NCR Nigeria’s rally appears to be driven more by how the stock is owned and traded than by what the company is earning. It is a stock where momentum is leading fundamentals, making it attractive to traders and speculative investors, but one that still demands caution from long-term value seekers.

Until earnings and cash-flow sustainability materially improve, investors should treat the stock as a momentum play, not a fundamentals story.