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The World Bank has projected that Nigeria’s economic growth could rise to 4.4 per cent by 2026, driven largely by ongoing tax reforms and improved fiscal management.
In its latest economic update, the global financial institution noted that recent reforms aimed at widening the tax base, enhancing revenue collection and reducing leakages are beginning to yield positive results. These measures, it said, could strengthen public finances and support sustained economic expansion.
According to the report, Nigeria’s growth outlook remains positive despite global uncertainties, provided reforms are implemented consistently. The World Bank highlighted the simplification of tax administration, digitisation of revenue systems and efforts to curb exemptions as key drivers of the projected growth.
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The institution also stressed that improved non-oil revenue mobilisation would reduce Nigeria’s overdependence on crude oil earnings, making the economy more resilient to external shocks. It added that higher revenues would enable increased spending on infrastructure, health and education.
However, the World Bank cautioned that challenges such as inflation, unemployment and poverty must be addressed to ensure inclusive growth. It urged authorities to balance revenue generation with policies that protect vulnerable households and support small businesses.
The report further called for stronger coordination between federal and state governments on tax policies, warning that inconsistent regulations could undermine investor confidence.
Nigerian economic analysts welcomed the projection but noted that achieving the 4.4 per cent growth target would require sustained political will and effective implementation. They also emphasised the need for transparency and accountability in the use of additional revenues.
If successfully executed, the World Bank said, the reforms could place Nigeria on a stronger growth path by 2026, boosting investor confidence and improving living standards.
