Tinubu’s Tough Choices Are Fixing Structural Injustice — Dare

Special Adviser to the President on Media and Public Communication, Mr. Sunday Dare (CON), on Thursday said Nigeria’s Fourth Republic, despite deep economic and security pressures, remains the country’s most durable democratic experiment, arguing that ongoing economic reforms under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu are essential to protecting democracy and restoring public trust.

Dare spoke at the Daily Trust Public Lecture on Nigeria’s Fourth Republic: What Is Working and What Is Not, held at the NAF Conference Centre, Abuja, where he described democratic governance as a “learning curve” shaped by shifting political and economic realities, not a straight-line progression.

He said governments must continually reassess priorities as events unfold, noting that economic conditions often determine what democratic systems can realistically deliver. “Democracy survives not only on good intentions, but on the capacity of the economy to support inclusion, justice and opportunity,” he said.

Why earlier republics failed

Tracing Nigeria’s political history, Dare said the First Republic (1960–1966) collapsed under the weight of identity politics, disputed elections and fragile alliances, turning politics into “a struggle for survival rather than governance.” He cited the Tiv riots, census disputes and growing regional mistrust as signs that institutions failed to manage diversity and grievance.

He argued that the 1966 coups and the subsequent civil war were consequences, not causes, of deep ethnic fears and institutional breakdown, adding that post-war reconciliation policies did not fully heal political and psychological wounds, leaving lingering distrust of the federal centre.

According to him, the oil boom of the 1970s further weakened accountability by disconnecting governance from productivity, entrenching rent-seeking and import dependence, and eroding both economic and political legitimacy by the early 1980s.

Dare said the Second Republic (1979–1983) and later military governments inherited and worsened these distortions, with multiple exchange rates, currency arbitrage and systemic corruption crowding out industrial growth. By the late 1990s, he said, Nigeria was “economically exhausted” and politically fragile.

What is working in the Fourth Republic

Turning to the present dispensation, Dare said the Fourth Republic’s strength lies not in perfection but in institutional endurance.

He listed key gains as:

Uninterrupted civilian rule for over 26 years, Nigeria’s longest stretch in history.
*Judicial resolution of electoral disputes, with most major contests settled in courts rather than through extra-constitutional means.
*Expanded civic participation, with registered voters rising from about 57 million in 1999 to over 93 million by 2023, alongside wider internet access and stronger civil society.
*Media scrutiny, which he said now imposes political and reputational costs on failure.
*Policy continuity, through fiscal frameworks, sovereign wealth mechanisms and independent revenue agencies.

“These are not small achievements in a country with our history,” he said, adding that democratic breakdown risks decline significantly after two decades of sustained civilian rule.

Where democracy is losing ground

However, Dare said democracy is under strain where economic hardship persists, citing low trust in political institutions and weak service delivery at subnational levels.

He pointed to surveys showing that fewer than 35 percent of Nigerians consistently trust the federal government, while many states spend over 70 percent of revenues on recurrent expenditure with low internally generated revenue.

He also highlighted the impact of inflation, youth unemployment and poverty, as well as the security-economy link, where insurgency and banditry disrupt farming, trade and schooling, feeding urban inflation and displacement.

“Democracy weakens when livelihoods collapse,” he said, adding that rebuilding national cohesion remains a major task as identity often outweighs citizenship in public perception.

Tinubu reforms and early outcomes

Dare said President Tinubu inherited a “structurally unjust” economy marked by subsidy capture, FX arbitrage and fiscal indiscipline, arguing that the removal of fuel subsidies and unification of exchange rates were necessary corrections, not just economic choices.

He cited several indicators to support claims of recovery:

* Inflation declining from over 33 percent in 2024 to the mid-teens by late 2025.
* GDP growth improving to around 4 percent, with international projections placing Nigeria among faster-growing emerging markets.
* External reserves rising to about $43–45 billion.
* Exit from the FATF grey list, improving financial credibility.
* Manufactured exports up by nearly 47 percent in the first half of 2025.
* Oil production rising to about 1.6 million barrels per day in 2025.

He also pointed to agriculture programmes such as the Nigeria–Brazil Green Imperative Project and Special Agro-Industrial Processing Zones, social safety nets covering millions of households, expanded student loans through NELFUND, consumer credit via CrediCorp, large-scale road projects, and revitalisation of primary healthcare centres, including thousands of free caesarean sections under the national health insurance framework.

“Reform is democracy’s insurance”

In his conclusion, Dare warned that Nigeria’s past shows military interventions followed periods of economic and political collapse, arguing that the Fourth Republic has survived because it is learning to correct itself from within.

“Reform is not anti-democratic. Reform is democracy’s insurance policy,” he said, urging Nigerians to support systemic changes even when they involve short-term sacrifices.

He said unity must be pursued through fairness, institutional credibility and economic inclusion, not rhetoric, and called on citizens to work with the Tinubu administration to deepen reforms and strengthen democratic maturity.

“The journey is not without mistakes and bumps,” he said, “but the focus must remain on delivery, not distractions, if democracy is to work for all Nigerians.”