Senate Passes 2026–2028 MTEF, Clears Path for Tinubu’s 2026 Budget

The Nigerian Senate on Tuesday approved the 2026–2028 Medium Term Expenditure Framework and Fiscal Strategy Paper (MTEF/FSP), projecting a massive aggregate expenditure for the 2026 fiscal year and paving the way for President Bola Tinubu to present the 2026 Appropriation Bill to the National Assembly.

The MTEF/FSP, which serves as the statutory framework for the annual budget, was passed after the Senate considered the report of the Committee on Finance, chaired by Senator Mohammed Sani Musa (APC, Niger East). Its approval formally clears a key constitutional requirement ahead of the presentation of the federal budget.

Following the passage, Senate President Godswill Akpabio disclosed that President Tinubu is expected to submit the 2026 budget proposal between now and Thursday. He noted that the timely consideration of the MTEF would ensure a smooth budget process.

Under the approved framework, the Senate adopted an oil benchmark of US$64.85 per barrel for the 2026 fiscal year. Aggregate revenue is projected at ₦34.33 trillion, while total expenditure is expected to significantly exceed earnings, resulting in a fiscal deficit of ₦20.13 trillion.

To bridge the deficit, the framework provides for borrowings of ₦17.88 trillion. Debt servicing is estimated at ₦15.52 trillion, reflecting the continued pressure of public debt obligations on government finances. The Senate also approved ₦1.376 trillion for pensions, gratuities and other benefits for retirees.

The approval of the MTEF/FSP sets the macroeconomic assumptions that will guide the preparation of the 2026 budget, including revenue projections, expenditure ceilings and borrowing plans over the medium term. Lawmakers said the framework was designed to align fiscal policy with economic realities while sustaining government operations.

However, Senate President Akpabio cautioned that the document should not be seen as the final position of the legislature. He stressed that the MTEF is a prerequisite to budget presentation and remains subject to review if economic conditions change.

“The Medium-Term Expenditure Framework is only a prerequisite before the presentation of the budget. What we are discussing here is not a finality,” Akpabio said. “If circumstances change, it will be brought back to us to rejig, react or act.”

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The passage of the MTEF comes amid concerns over rising deficits, debt servicing costs and the need to boost revenue generation. Analysts note that the assumptions contained in the framework will be closely scrutinised when the 2026 budget is presented, particularly against the backdrop of volatile oil prices and ongoing economic reforms.

With the framework now in place, attention shifts to the executive arm as Nigerians await the details of the 2026 Appropriation Bill, which will outline the government’s spending priorities for the coming year.